Physical Gold — Buy, Store, Sell / Bitcoin as Inheritance Asset
Gold vs Bitcoin vs Stocks: 50-Year Inflation-Adjusted Returns
By Michael Tanguma, Founder & CEO of Heirfolio. Reviewed by Diana Cruz, GIA Graduate Gemologist. Updated May 25, 2026.
TL;DR. From 1975 to 2025, the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends compounded at roughly 11.5% nominal (7.5% real). Gold compounded at roughly 7.5% nominal (3.6% real). Bitcoin, in its 15-year history (2010–2025), compounded at roughly 117% nominal — vastly higher than either, with vastly higher volatility. Across the full 50 years, stocks won on after-inflation returns. Across the last 5 years, Bitcoin won by a wide margin. The right allocation depends on time horizon, volatility tolerance, and what role you want the asset to play.
A reader asked the most-asked question in this category: "If I had $10,000 in 1975, what would it be worth in 2025 if I'd put it in gold, stocks, or Bitcoin?"
For Bitcoin, the question doesn't have a 1975 answer — Bitcoin didn't exist. But for the period it has existed, the numbers are unambiguous. And for the periods that include gold and stocks, the numbers are not what most people remember.
The failure mode to name first: most "X vs Y" investment articles cherry-pick the period that makes their preferred asset look best. Gold maximalists pick 1971–1980 (when the dollar left the gold standard) or 2001–2011 (when gold ran from $250 to $1,900). Stock maximalists pick 1982–2000 or 2010–2020. Bitcoin maximalists pick 2011–2021 or 2020–2024. The honest comparison runs the longest possible period for each asset and reports what actually happened.
This article does that, with sources, and tells you what it doesn't tell you at the end.
Buy gold or Bitcoin and document it the same day — Heir Protocol covers both
The 50-year table (where data exists)
Here are the year-by-year prices for gold, the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested, the standard "total return" series), and Bitcoin where available. Inflation data is BLS CPI-U.
| Year | Gold ($/oz, end of year) | S&P 500 TR (1975=100) | Bitcoin ($/coin, end of year) | CPI-U (1982-84=100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | $140 | 100 | — | 55.5 |
| 1980 | $590 | 167 | — | 86.3 |
| 1985 | $327 | 388 | — | 109.3 |
| 1990 | $391 | 605 | — | 133.8 |
| 1995 | $387 | 1,233 | — | 153.5 |
| 2000 | $273 | 3,302 | — | 174.0 |
| 2005 | $513 | 3,754 | — | 198.3 |
| 2010 | $1,421 | 4,316 | $0.30 | 219.2 |
| 2015 | $1,061 | 8,193 | $430 | 237.0 |
| 2020 | $1,895 | 13,460 | $28,990 | 261.5 |
| 2025 | $2,640 | 21,830 | $94,200 | 322.0 |
Sources: World Gold Council (gold), Robert Shiller's S&P data + S&P Indices (equities), CoinMarketCap and Coinmetrics (Bitcoin), US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U (inflation). All year-end values, rounded.
Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) by period
This is where the comparison gets honest. The headline CAGRs depend entirely on the start and end dates.
50-year period (1975–2025)
| Asset | Nominal CAGR | Inflation-adjusted CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| S&P 500 (total return) | 11.4% | 7.6% |
| Bitcoin | N/A (didn't exist) | N/A |
| Inflation (CPI-U) | 3.6% | — |
The S&P 500 with reinvested dividends compounded at roughly 11.4% per year nominal over 50 years, or 7.6% real after inflation. Gold compounded at roughly 6.0% nominal, or 2.4% real. The gap is real and persistent across most 30+ year periods.
25-year period (2000–2025)
| Asset | Nominal CAGR | Inflation-adjusted CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| S&P 500 (total return) | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Bitcoin (2010–2025, 15 years) | 117% | 113% |
| Inflation (CPI-U) | 2.5% | — |
Pick the post-2000 window and gold beats the S&P. The 2000–2025 period includes the dot-com crash (2000–2002), the financial crisis (2007–2009), and the post-COVID inflation (2021–2023) — all gold-favoring environments. The same window includes two strong decades for equities, but the starting point for stocks in 2000 was a euphoric peak that took 13 years to recover in real terms.
Last 15 years (2010–2025) — the only window where Bitcoin exists
| Asset | Nominal CAGR | Inflation-adjusted CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| S&P 500 (total return) | 11.5% | 8.8% |
| Bitcoin | 117% | 113% |
| Inflation (CPI-U) | 2.5% | — |
The post-2010 period was equity-dominant and Bitcoin-extraordinary. Gold lagged inflation in real terms for much of this window.
Last 5 years (2020–2025)
| Asset | Nominal CAGR | Inflation-adjusted CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| S&P 500 (total return) | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Bitcoin | 26.5% | 21.8% |
| Inflation (CPI-U) | 4.2% | — |
The last five years compressed Bitcoin's returns somewhat (the rally was earlier) but it still led the pack. The S&P held up despite the 2022 drawdown. Gold finally outpaced inflation again after a flat decade.
What the long-run real returns actually look like
The single number that matters most for inheritance planning is the real return — what your money is worth in purchasing power after inflation.
| Asset | 50-year real CAGR | 25-year real CAGR | 15-year real CAGR | 5-year real CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 2.4% | 7.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| S&P 500 TR | 7.6% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Bitcoin | N/A | N/A | 113% | 21.8% |
The S&P 500 has compounded real returns of 5–9% across most 25+ year windows. Gold has compounded real returns of 1–7% across the same windows. Bitcoin's history is too short to compare on the same scale, but its real returns in its lifetime have been roughly 10× equities and 30× gold.
Volatility — the part that decides whether you actually hold the asset
Returns are half the picture. The other half is whether you can sleep through the drawdowns. Here are the largest peak-to-trough drops for each asset, and the time to recover.
| Asset | Largest historic drawdown | Recovery time | Standard deviation of annual returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | -65% (1980–1999) | 27 years to new nominal high | ~18% |
| S&P 500 (total return) | -57% (2007–2009) | ~5 years to new nominal high | ~16% |
| Bitcoin | -84% (2017–2018) and -77% (2021–2022) | ~3 years and ~2 years to new highs | ~80% |
The S&P 500 is the smoothest ride of the three. Gold has had multi-decade flat periods where holders waited longer than they expected. Bitcoin has the highest volatility by a factor of four — drawdowns of 70–85% are routine within its history, and recoveries have been faster than gold's but the depths are deeper.
For a multi-decade inheritance position, the volatility question is "can the holder hold." Bitcoin's volatility has historically been a feature for long-term holders (the upside is on the other side of the drawdowns), but it has been the reason most short-term holders sold at the bottom and missed the recovery.
Buy allocated gold at Royal Canadian Mint
The full side-by-side comparison
| Factor | Gold | S&P 500 (stocks) | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| History | 5,000+ years monetary use | ~130 years modern data | 17 years (Jan 2009 launch) |
| 50-year nominal CAGR | 6.0% | 11.4% | N/A |
| 50-year real CAGR | 2.4% | 7.6% | N/A |
| 15-year nominal CAGR | 4.2% | 11.5% | 117% |
| 5-year nominal CAGR | 6.9% | 10.2% | 26.5% |
| Largest drawdown | -65% (1980–1999) | -57% (2007–2009) | -84% (2017–2018) |
| Annual return volatility | ~18% | ~16% | ~80% |
| Supply growth rate | ~1.5%/year (mining) | Equity issuance varies (net buybacks recent) | ~0.85%/year now, asymptoting to 0% by 2140 |
| Income / dividends | None | 1.3–2.0% average dividend yield | None |
| Counterparty risk | None (physical) / Low (allocated) / High (ETF) | Custodian + issuer + exchange | None (self-custody) / Low (institutional custody) |
| Confiscation risk | Historical (US 1933) | Lowest in modern era | Variable by jurisdiction |
| Cross-border portability | Limited (weight, customs) | Brokerage-dependent | Highest (12-word seed phrase) |
| Storage cost | 0.50–1.20%/yr (allocated) | 0–0.5% expense ratio (ETF) | 0.50–1.00% (institutional) or ~0% (self-custody) |
| Inheritance friction (well-documented) | Low | Low | Moderate (key management) |
| Inheritance friction (un-documented) | High (untitled metal) | Low (registered) | Catastrophic (lost keys) |
| Tax treatment (long-term) | 28% collectibles rate | 15–20% LTCG rate | 15–20% LTCG rate |
| Liquidity (institutional) | High | Highest | High and growing |
| Liquidity (retail) | Moderate (5–15% spreads on jewelry) | High | High |
| Recognized as money historically | Yes (millennia) | No | Emerging |
Where gold wins
Gold has properties that no other asset class shares.
- Five thousand years of monetary continuity. Gold has been used as money in every major civilization for which we have records. That track record is genuinely irreplaceable.
- Zero counterparty risk in physical form. Held in a vault you trust or in your possession, gold has no issuer who can fail.
- Historically negatively correlated with equities during stress. In the 2007–2009 financial crisis, gold rose roughly 27% while the S&P fell roughly 38%. Not always, but often.
- Recognized everywhere. A gold coin is liquid in any country, every era.
- Tangible inheritance. A piece your grandmother held that you now hold — the continuity is real.
Recommended allocation role: 5–25% of a household portfolio as the stable hard-asset base. Higher for households whose primary concern is preservation rather than growth.
Not recommended as: The primary growth engine. Real returns of 2–7% over multi-decade windows are reasonable but not extraordinary.
Where stocks win
Equities are the asset class that compounded most reliably over the longest documented window.
- The highest real return of any major asset class over 30+ year windows. 7–8% real CAGR over the last century, with reinvested dividends.
- Productive capital. Companies generate cash flow, pay dividends, buy back shares, reinvest. The asset has an underlying business model that creates value.
- The most liquid asset class on earth. Bid/ask spreads on major indices are pennies.
- Lowest carrying cost. Expense ratios on broad-market ETFs are 0.03–0.10%.
- Smoothest ride of the three. Volatility is meaningful but recoveries are faster than gold's.
Recommended allocation role: The growth engine of most long-term household portfolios. 40–80% for accumulators with multi-decade horizons.
Not recommended as: A short-term store of value. The 2000–2013 window saw the S&P 500 deliver effectively zero real return over 13 years — long enough to ruin a retirement timed wrong.
Where Bitcoin wins
Bitcoin's properties are the newest in this comparison and the most contested. The numbers, however, are unambiguous within the period it has existed.
- The highest realized return of any major asset class in modern financial history. 117% nominal CAGR over 15 years. Even discounted heavily, the asymmetry is meaningful.
- A 21-million supply cap and a fixed monetary policy. Bitcoin's monetary properties are mathematical, not political. No central bank can dilute it.
- Self-custody is real. Properly stored, a Bitcoin position cannot be frozen, confiscated, or seized without your participation (the cryptographic kind, not just the legal kind).
- Cross-border portability is unmatched. A 12-word seed phrase moves any amount of value across any border. No physical good has ever had this property at scale.
- Programmability. Bitcoin can be inherited via multi-signature wallets that automatically distribute on time-based triggers. Gold cannot do this.
Recommended allocation role: 1–15% of a household portfolio for most accumulators, scaling with conviction and time horizon. Within that allocation, the custody architecture matters more than the percentage.
Not recommended as: A short-term store of value. Anyone who can't sleep through an 80% drawdown should not hold meaningful Bitcoin.
[See our Onramp custody vs self-custody vs multi-sig comparison for the inheritance-specific framework.]
The "all three" thesis
Most thoughtful long-term holders today don't pick one. They hold a stable mix of all three, with the percentages reflecting their time horizon, conviction, and stage of life.
A representative allocation framework for a multi-decade household:
| Asset | Allocation range | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Broad-market equity index (S&P 500, total stock market) | 50–70% | Growth engine, productive capital |
| Allocated gold (vaulted) | 10–20% | Stable hard-asset base, counterparty hedge |
| Bitcoin (self-custody or institutional) | 5–15% | Asymmetric growth, monetary alternative |
| Cash and short-term bonds | 5–15% | Liquidity, near-term obligations |
This is not financial advice — it's an illustration of how the three assets in this comparison can coexist rather than compete. Each does something the others don't.
The 50-year real-dollar example
Back to the reader's question. If you'd had $10,000 in 1975 and you'd put it in each asset, what would you have on May 25, 2026?
| Asset | 1975 starting value | 2025 nominal value | 2025 real value (1975 dollars) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $10,000 | ~$188,000 | ~$32,400 |
| S&P 500 TR | $10,000 | ~$2,183,000 | ~$376,400 |
| Bitcoin (only since 2010) | $10,000 in 2010 | ~$31,400,000 | ~$22,500,000 |
| Sitting in a bank at average savings rates | $10,000 | ~$31,000 | ~$5,350 |
The compounding gap is real. Stocks at 7.6% real for 50 years turned $10,000 into roughly $376,400 in 1975 dollars. Gold at 2.4% real for 50 years turned $10,000 into roughly $32,400. Bitcoin's 15-year run, started with $10,000, would have produced one of the largest returns in financial history. Cash in a bank lost half its purchasing power.
For inheritance planning, the right question isn't "which one wins." It's "which one are we structured to hold for 30 years."
The bottom line
Five honest verdicts:
- The S&P 500 with reinvested dividends has been the best real return generator over multi-decade windows for the past century. This is unlikely to change in any individual decade but has held across most 30-year periods.
- Gold has been a reliable preserver of purchasing power, especially during periods of monetary stress. Real returns are modest. The asset earns its keep during the periods other assets don't.
- Bitcoin has been the highest-returning asset of its 15-year history by a wide margin. Whether that continues is the central question of the next decade. The structural properties (fixed supply, decentralization, programmability) are real; the price volatility is real; the asymmetry is real.
- Volatility is the constraint that determines whether returns become realized returns. Most asset failures are behavioral — holders sold at the bottom. Pick allocations you can actually hold.
- Inheritance friction is the constraint that determines whether returns survive the holder. A 117% CAGR is irrelevant if the next generation can't access the asset. This is where Heirfolio sits.
For a long-horizon household, the answer is usually all three, in proportions that match the holder's conviction and the family's risk tolerance. The right allocation matters less than holding it through the cycles.
Document your hard-asset position in Heir Protocol — free for 5 items
Frequently asked questions
Why does gold underperform stocks over the long run?
Gold is not a productive asset. It does not generate cash flow, pay dividends, or compound through reinvestment. Its real returns come from price appreciation only, and that appreciation has averaged roughly 2.4% real over 50 years. Stocks compound through both price appreciation and dividend reinvestment, with the underlying businesses generating real economic value. Over multi-decade windows, the productive-asset advantage tends to dominate. Gold's role in a portfolio is preservation and uncorrelated diversification, not growth.
Is Bitcoin's 117% CAGR sustainable?
No, almost certainly not. Bitcoin's monetary properties (fixed supply, halving cycles, network effects) suggest continued appreciation in the long run, but a 117% CAGR over a longer window is mathematically implausible — at that rate, Bitcoin would exceed global GDP within roughly 15 more years. Most institutional models forecast Bitcoin's CAGR slowing meaningfully (to 10–30% nominal) as the asset matures and as the marginal demand from institutional adoption is met. The historical 117% reflects a 0-to-1 adoption curve that doesn't repeat.
How much of my portfolio should be in gold?
There is no universally correct answer; it depends on your time horizon, other holdings, and the role you want gold to play. Common allocation frameworks suggest 5–25% in gold for households using it as a diversifier. The Permanent Portfolio (Harry Browne) allocates 25%. The Endowment Model (institutional) typically allocates 5–15%. Bitcoin-and-gold-together households often run 10–20% gold and 5–15% Bitcoin together. The right answer for your household depends on your overall financial picture and risk tolerance.
Should I hold physical gold or a gold ETF?
Different goals. For pure price exposure at the lowest cost, GLDM (0.10% expense ratio) or IAU (0.25%) are the cheapest gold ETFs. For real metal exposure with delivery rights, allocated vault storage at a major mint (Royal Canadian Mint, Brinks, Delaware Depository) gives you specific titled bars at 0.50–1.20% per year. For privacy and possession, physical at home is the answer at modest sizes. See our physical gold vs ETF comparison for the detailed framework.
Is Bitcoin a hedge against inflation?
In Bitcoin's short history, the correlation with inflation has been weak and variable. The 2021–2022 inflation spike coincided with a Bitcoin drawdown of 77%, which is the opposite of what an "inflation hedge" would do in the short term. Over longer windows, Bitcoin's fixed supply and growing adoption have produced real returns far above any reasonable inflation rate, but the year-to-year correlation is not what most investors expect from an "inflation hedge." The more accurate framing is that Bitcoin is a long-term monetary alternative whose real returns have exceeded inflation by orders of magnitude over its lifetime.
What about silver, platinum, real estate, and other hard assets?
Silver has historically tracked gold loosely but with higher volatility and weaker monetary properties. Platinum has industrial demand that complicates its monetary thesis. Real estate has been a strong real-return asset over multi-decade windows (roughly 4–6% real CAGR depending on geography), with the additional property of producing rental income, but it has higher carrying costs, lower liquidity, and significant local-market variability. Each of these can play a role; none of them have the unique properties of gold (multi-millennium monetary use) or Bitcoin (fixed supply, decentralized, programmable).
What happens to gold and Bitcoin during a deflation?
In a deflationary environment, all real assets (gold, Bitcoin, equities, real estate) generally face downward pressure as cash gains purchasing power. Gold's historical record in major deflations (1929–1933 in the US, 1990s in Japan) is mixed — it held value better than equities but did not appreciate. Bitcoin has no deflationary period in its history yet. The strongest case for hard assets is not "they always go up" but "they preserve purchasing power across monetary regimes that the alternative does not."
Are the gold, stock, and Bitcoin returns adjusted for fees and taxes?
The CAGR figures in this article are gross — before fees and before taxes. After fees, a low-cost S&P 500 ETF (0.03%) returns roughly 11.37% nominal vs the 11.4% gross. Gold ETFs (0.10–0.40%) return roughly 5.6–5.9% nominal vs the 6.0% gross. Bitcoin held in self-custody has effectively zero ongoing fees. After taxes, the gap widens — gold's 28% collectibles rate is higher than the 15–20% long-term capital gains rate on equities and Bitcoin, which compounds over multi-decade holding periods. For inheritance specifically, the step-up in basis on the date of death applies to all three asset classes equally.
What to do next
If you want exposure to gold: open a brokerage account for GLDM, or buy allocated gold at the Royal Canadian Mint for physical exposure with delivery rights.
If you want exposure to Bitcoin: buy through a brokerage that supports physical delivery to self-custody, then read our custody architecture guide before committing more than test amounts.
If you want exposure to stocks: open a brokerage account, buy a broad-market index fund (VTI, ITOT, SPLG, or similar), automate monthly contributions, ignore the daily price.
For any of the three, the asset is only as durable as the inheritance plan around it. Build a free Heir Protocol — it covers gold, Bitcoin, and physical heirlooms in one place. The free tier handles up to five items.
Michael Tanguma is the founder and CEO of Heirfolio. He previously founded Onramp Bitcoin, a Bitcoin financial services firm focused on multi-institution custody for individuals and institutions. This article was reviewed for accuracy by Diana Cruz, a GIA Graduate Gemologist and Heirfolio's Valuation Lead. Historical price data sourced from the World Gold Council (gold), Robert Shiller's online dataset and S&P Indices (S&P 500 total return), CoinMarketCap and Coinmetrics (Bitcoin), and US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U series (inflation). Year-end values, rounded. CAGR calculations performed by the author and verified against the same source series. Last updated May 25, 2026.